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Kako lahko vlagatelji odgovorno izkoristijo naložbene priložnosti

Christa Geyer, vodja kompetenčnega centra za srednjo in vzhodno Evropo pri družbi Raiffeisen Capital Management , je poudarila, da so velike družbene spremembe v zadnjih letih povzročile tudi spremembo paradigme v industriji skladov. Finančna industrija ima zdaj izjemno pomembno vlogo pri doseganju pariških podnebnih ciljev. „Tudi družba Raiffeisen Capital Management se je pred približno desetimi leti reorganizirala in svojo ponudbo produktov preusmerila v trajnostne naložbe,“ pravi Christa Geyer. Družba za upravljanje skladov s sedežem na Dunaju sledi zelo ambiciozni usmeritvi glede meril ESG , ki je bila deležna velike mednarodne pozornosti in priznanja. Lani jeseni je bila družba Raiffeisen Capital Management ena od zelo redkih upravljavcev skladov v Evropi, ki je od nemške bonitetne agencije Scope prejela oceno AAA za svojo izjemno kakovost pri upravljanju trajnostnih skladov. „Na to smo zelo ponosni,“ pravi Geyer. „In čeprav je zdaj prisotna določena utrujenost v zvezi z vseprisotnostjo besede ‚trajnostni‘, obstaja soglasje, da moramo kot ponudnik finančnih storitev še naprej slediti in razvijati to odgovorno pot v interesu naše družbe in prihodnjih generacij. Prepričani smo tudi, da odgovorno vlaganje prispeva h kakovosti produktov,“ dodaja Geyer. Družba Raiffeisen Capital Management v Sloveniji distribuira sklade že približno 20 let. Že takrat, v poznih devetdesetih letih prejšnjega stoletja in v začetku novega tisočletja, je bila družba za upravljanje skladov pionirka v regiji. Zdaj je to znova: z odgovornimi naložbami, ki sledijo visokim standardom kakovosti.

Umetna inteligenca kot gonilo rasti

Günther Schmitt, vodja oddelka „Delnice, razviti trgi“, v družbi Raiffeisen Capital Management prav tako vlaga v skladu z merili ESG. Njegova ekipa upravlja globalne delniške sklade. Njegov tim upravlja tematski sklad, ki se osredotoča na megatrende. „Umetna inteligenca igra vse pomembnejšo vlogo in vpliva na skoraj vse megatrende ter seveda na številna druga področja, pa naj gre za tehnologijo, demografijo, zdravje ali trajnost,“ pravi Schmitt. Umetna inteligenca je postala pomemben dejavnik rasti na delniških trgih. To velja zlasti za razvite delniške trge, ki jih med drugim poganjajo družbe Apple, Microsoft, Google in Nvidia, vse bolj pa tudi za nastajajoče trge, čeprav se ta tehnologija tam še ne uporablja tako pogosto, meni Schmitt. Priložnosti, ki jih ponuja umetna inteligenca, so zato zelo jasne tudi za naložbe. „Pet največjih delnic predstavlja 25 % tržne kapitalizacije indeksa S&P 500. To je nov rekord,“ pravi Schmitt.

Hiter razvoj 'Veličastnih 7' bi se lahko upočasnil

Razlika med temi najuspešnejšimi in preostalimi podjetji v indeksih se je v zadnjih letih precej povečala. Toda kako dolgo še? Prvo znižanje obrestnih mer s strani Fed je običajno pozitivno vplivalo na uspešnost indeksa S&P 500 - vendar ne v recesijskem okolju. Velika uspešnost tako imenovanih 'Veličastnih 7' bi se lahko nekoliko upočasnila. Po Schmittovem mnenju izid prihajajočih predsedniških volitev v ZDA - zgodovinsko gledano - ne bi imel večjega vpliva na razvoj delniških trgov. Četudi bi lahko davčni programi, geopolitika in podnebna politika ter visoki stroški zdravstvenega varstva povzročili nestanovitnost na trgih.

Dialog s podjetji je bistvenega pomena

„Četudi umetna inteligenca prinaša obetavne naložbe, je primeren kritičen pristop - zlasti z vidika trajnostno usmerjenega vlagatelja. Dialog s podjetji, v povezavi z umetno inteligenco, je bistvenega pomena,“ pravi Schmitt. To pa zato, ker je mogoče občutljive teme, kot so varstvo podatkov, diskriminacija ali vprašanja odgovornosti, obravnavati proaktivno in zahtevati izboljšave. Državna ureditev je vsekakor dobrodošla, saj ustvarja tudi standarde na področju etike, pravi Schmitt. Vendar pa ne smemo zanemariti pozitivnega razvoja, ki ga lahko omogoči umetna inteligenca. Umetna inteligenca lahko na primer pomembno prispeva k uresničevanju ciljev trajnostnega razvoja 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 13 in 14. „Srednjeročno do dolgoročno lahko umetna inteligenca prispeva tudi k preobrazbi ESG kot pozitivnemu sprožilcu. Po kritični analizi in oceni negativnih dejavnikov in tveganj vidimo umetno inteligenco na splošno kot temo, ki okolju in družbi prinaša več koristi kot škode,“ pravi Schmitt.

Umetna inteligenca na borzi: velik potencial, a tudi velika tveganja

Umetna inteligenca bo trajno spremenila našo družbo. Če podprete prava podjetja in tehnologije, lahko na borzi ustvarite velike dobičke. Vendar pa lahko v tako hitro razvijajočem se tehnološkem sektorju kadar koli pride do nepričakovanih dogodkov, ki povzročijo velike spremembe. Domnevno zanesljivi zmagovalci v tem sektorju se lahko nepričakovano znajdejo na strani poražencev. Zato je zelo pomembno, da upravljavci skladov nenehno in pozorno spremljajo trg ter skrbno izbirajo podjetja.

Trajnostni pristop družbe Raiffeisen Capital Management

Ko gre za odgovorno vlaganje, je ključna točka podpora preobrazbi v podnebno nevtralnost. Čisto izključevalno ali črno-belo razmišljanje ne prispeva k doseganju podnebne nevtralnosti. Družba Raiffeisen Capital Management je zato opredelila sedem področij, na katera ta preobrazba zelo močno vpliva, in jih določila kot »Zukunft-Themen«(teme za prihodnost): Energetika, infrastruktura, krožno gospodarstvo, mobilnost, tehnologija, surovine ter prehrana, zdravje in dobro počutje. Za teh sedem osrednjih področij smo pri upravljanju skladov ustanovili interdisciplinarne delovne skupine, ki se intenzivno ukvarjajo tudi z zadevno tematiko glede ESG in so v tesnem medsebojnem dialogu, saj obstaja tudi veliko vsebinskih povezav in ustreznih vmesnikov. Strokovno znanje, ki ga družba Raiffeisen Capital Management kot aktivna upravljavka premoženja pridobi s tem poglobljenim raziskovanjem podjetij in držav, je sestavni del naložbenega procesa in se kot kvalitativna diskrecijska ocena neposredno preliva tudi v odločitev o tem, ali naj se v podjetje ali državo investira. Izključitve so smiselne na področjih, kjer je pomembno zavzeti stališče, kot v primeru premoga. V mnogih primerih podpora prispeva k doseganju podnebnih ciljev bolj kot izogibanje.

Raiffeisen Capital Management* je evropski upravljavec premoženja. S 43,4 milijarde evrov sredstev v upravljanju konec aprila 2024 je največja družba za upravljanje skladov v skupini Raiffeisen Bank International. Družba je zastopana na pomembnih evropskih trgih, bonitetne agencije in poslovni mediji pa ji vedno znova priznavajo visoko kakovost njenih skladov. Raiffeisen Capital Management* je ustanovni član pobude Raiffeisen Sustainability Initiative.

English Version:

High-tech, AI:
How investors can take advantage of opportunities

• Financial industry hugely important player for achieving climate targets

• Artificial intelligence (AI) as a growth driver

• AI on the stock market: great potential with equally great risks

Christa Geyer, Head of Centre of Competence CEE at Raiffeisen Capital Management emphasised that the major social changes of recent years had also led to a paradigm shift in the fund industry. The financial industry now has an enormously important role to play in achieving the Paris climate targets. "Raiffeisen Capital Management also reorganized itself around 10 years ago and switched its product range to sustainable investment," says Geyer. The Vienna-based fund company is pursuing a very ambitious course with regard to ESG criteria*, which has received a great deal of international attention and recognition. Last autumn, Raiffeisen Capital Management was one of very few fund companies in Europe to receive an AAA rating from the German rating agency Scope for its outstanding quality in the management of sustainable funds. "We are very proud of this," says Geyer. "And even if there is now a certain fatigue with regard to the omnipresence of the word 'sustainable', there is a consensus that we as a financial services provider must continue to pursue and develop this responsible path in the interests of our society and future generations. We are also convinced that responsible investing contributes to the quality of the products," adds Geyer. Raiffeisen Capital Management has been distributing funds in Slovenia for around 20 years. Even back then, in the late 1990s and noughties, the fund company was a pioneer in the region. Now it is again: with responsible investment that pursues high quality standards.

Growth driver artificial intelligence

Günther Schmitt, Head of the "Equities, Developed Markets" department, also invests in line with ESG criteria at Raiffeisen Capital Management. His team manages global equity funds. He himself manages a thematic fund that focuses on megatrends. "Artificial intelligence is playing an increasingly important role and affects almost all megatrends and, of course, many other areas, whether it's technology, demographics, health or sustainability," says Schmitt. AI has become an important growth factor on the stock markets. This applies in particular to the developed stock markets, driven by Apple, Microsoft, Google and Nvidia, among others, but also increasingly to the emerging markets, even if this technology is not yet so widely used there, according to Schmitt. The opportunities offered by artificial intelligence are therefore also very clear for investments. "The five largest stocks account for 25% of the market capitalisation of the S&P 500 Index. That's a new record," says Schmitt.

Rapid development of the Magnificent 7 could slow down

The gap between these high performers and the other companies in the indices has widened considerably in recent years. But for how much longer? The Fed's first interest rate cuts have usually had a positive effect on the performance of the S&P 500 – but not in a recessionary environment. The strong performance of the so-called Magnificent 7* could slow down somewhat. According to Schmitt, the upcoming presidential election result in the USA would not have a serious impact on the development of the stock markets from a historical perspective. Even if tax programs, geopolitics and climate policy as well as high healthcare costs could cause volatility on the markets.

Dialogue with companies is essential

"Even if artificial intelligence produces promising investments, a critical approach – especially from the perspective of a sustainably orientated investor – is appropriate. Dialogue with companies in connection with artificial intelligence is essential," says Schmitt. This is because sensitive topics such as data protection, discrimination or liability issues can be addressed proactively and improvements can be demanded. According to Schmitt, state regulation is definitely a good thing because it also creates standards in terms of ethics. However, the positive developments that artificial intelligence can favour should not be ignored. For example, AI could make a significant contribution to achieving the SDGs 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 13 and 14*. "In the medium to long term, AI can also contribute to ESG transformation as a positive trigger. After critically analysing and assessing the negative factors and risks, we see artificial intelligence overall as a topic that brings more benefits than harm to the environment and society," says Schmitt.

AI on the stock market: great potential, but also high risks

Artificial intelligence will permanently change our society. Those who bet on the right companies and technologies can realize correspondingly large profits on the stock market. However, in such a fast-moving technology sector, unexpected developments can occur at any time, leading to massive changes. Supposedly sure winners in the sector could then unexpectedly find themselves on the losing side. It is therefore very important for fund managers to constantly and closely monitor the market and select companies carefully.

Raiffeisen Capital Management's approach to sustainability

When it comes to responsible investment, supporting the transformation towards climate neutrality is the key point. Pure exclusionary or black-and-white thinking is not conducive to achieving climate neutrality. Raiffeisen Capital Management has therefore identified seven areas that are very strongly affected by this transformation and prioritised them as Zukunfts-Themen: Energy, infrastructure, circular economy, mobility, technology, raw materials as well as nutrition, health and well-being. We have established interdisciplinary working groups in fund management for these seven focal areas, which also deal intensively with the respective subject matter with regard to ESG and are in close dialogue with each other, as there are also many content-related connections and corresponding interfaces. The expertise that Raiffeisen Capital Management gains as an active asset manager through this deep dive into companies and countries is an integral part of the investment process and also flows directly as a qualitative, discretionary assessment into the decision on whether to invest in a company or a country. Exclusions make sense in areas where it is important to take a stance, such as coal. In many cases, support contributes more to achieving climate targets than mere avoidance.

*) Notes:
Sustainable finance, in the sense of the EU Green Deal, refers to the process of taking environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations into account when making investment decisions in the financial sector, which leads to more long-term investments in sustainable economic activities and projects.

Magnificent 7: Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp and Tesla Motors Inc.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the 17 sustainable development goals set out in the United Nations (UN) Agenda 2030, to which Austria is also committed.